Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Great Lakes Northern Forests CESU

Description

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Great Lakes Science Center is offering a funding opportunity to a CESU partner for research project that will develop downscaled climate and biophysical models to inform larval fish foraging and recruitment in Lake Michigan. To understand how larval fish and recruitment have varied under different historical (e.g., 1998 to present) and future (2040-2100) climate scenarios, require a suite of interconnected models that can predict key climate variables (e.g., temperature, wind, precipitation) that drive a biophysical model which, in turn can use nutrient inputs from tributaries to estimate zooplankton prey and the dispersal of larval fish after hatching in the nearshore waters. Through subsequent connection to larval fish foraging models, these models developed through this Opportunity will ultimately contribute to improved understanding of what drives survival of young fish that ultimately contribute to fisheries. Survival is known to vary widely from year to year and has been correlated with a diversity of climatic variables. However, the exact causes underlying variable survival are generally unknown and the consequences of future climatic conditions on future survival are unclear. Because Lake Michigan fisheries are worth billions of dollars, annually, fishery managers have prioritized improved knowledge of how climate influences the growth and survival of young fishes. The objectives of this Opportunity are to develop a suite of models (coupled, and in series) for Lake Michigan that include 1) a coupled regional three-dimensional lake-ice-atmosphere model, 2) a biophysical model that incorporates interannual variation in nutrient inputs, and 3) a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to simulate how fish larvae (assumed as passive particles) drift from their nearshore hatching grounds.

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